Open access notables

A Global Increase in Nearshore Tropical Cyclone Intensification, Balaguru et al., Earth’s Future:

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) inflict substantial coastal damages, making it pertinent to understand changing storm characteristics in the important nearshore region. Past work examined several aspects of TCs relevant for impacts in coastal regions. However, few studies explored nearshore storm intensification and its response to climate change at the global scale. Here, we address this using a suite of observations and numerical model simulations. Over the historical period 1979–2020, observations reveal a global mean TC intensification rate increase of about 3 kt per 24-hr in regions close to the coast. Analysis of the observed large-scale environment shows that stronger decreases in vertical wind shear and larger increases in relative humidity relative to the open oceans are responsible. Further, high-resolution climate model simulations suggest that nearshore TC intensification will continue to rise under global warming. Idealized numerical experiments with an intermediate complexity model reveal that decreasing shear near coastlines, driven by amplified warming in the upper troposphere and changes in heating patterns, is the major pathway for these projected increases in nearshore TC intensification.

Investigating the potential for students to contribute to climate data rescue: Introducing the Climate Data Rescue Africa project (CliDaR-Africa), Noone et al., Geoscience Data Journal:

The majority of available climate data in global digital archives consist of data only from the 1940s or 1950s onwards, and many of these series have gaps and/or are available for only a subset of the variables which were actually observed. However, there exist billions of historical weather observations from the 1700s, 1800s, and early 1900s that are still in hard-copy form and are at risk of being lost forever due to deterioration. An assessment of changes in climate extremes in several IPCC regions was not possible in IPCC AR6 WGI owing, in many cases, to the lack of available data. One such region is Africa, where the climate impact research and the ability to predict climate change impacts are hindered by the paucity of access to consistent good-quality historical observational data. The aim of this innovative project was to use classroom-based participatory learning to help transcribe some of the many meteorological observations from Africa that are thus far unavailable to researchers. This project transcribed quickly and effectively station series by enrolling the help of second-year undergraduate students at Maynooth University in Ireland.

A medical language for climate discourse, Forgács, Frontiers in Climate (perspective):

However scientifically accurate the messages climate scientists have put forward, the appropriate inferences may not have been drawn by most of their audiences. One of the main reasons may be that scientific metaphors allow for multiple interpretations, yet, because of their expressive power, they impact discourses disproportionately. Climate communication took a path of euphemistic scientific expressions partially due to the noble scientific norms of self-restraint and modesty, but the hidden implications of climate jargon distort the way non-experts think about the heating climate. Consequently, the current climate jargon hinders informed decisions about Earth’s life support systems. Changing the softened expressions of climate language, from the cool of basic research to the heat and compassion of medical contexts, may allow for more productive public and political debates – which may lead to more powerful policy solutions. 

The carbon dioxide removal gap, Lamb et al., Nature Climate Change:

In our study we found that compared with 2020, the most ambitious national proposals for CDR imply an additional 0.5 GtCO2 yr–1 of removals by 2030, and 1.9 GtCO2 yr–1 by 2050. Compared with CDR scaling in Paris Agreement-consistent scenarios, we found that these national CDR proposals tend to fall short by hundreds of megatonnes of carbon dioxide in 2030 to several gigatonnes of carbon dioxide in 2050, highlighting a ‘CDR gap’. However, we find that the most ambitious proposals do come close to levels in a low-energy-demand scenario where CDR requirements are minimized, suggesting that if countries pledge more ambitious emissions reductions consistent with these scenarios, the CDR gap will be closed.

Burying problems? Imaginaries of carbon capture and storage in Scandinavia, Lefstad et al., Energy Research & Social Science:

We reviewed the scientific literature on CCS in Scandinavia to identify and analyse prevalent imaginaries for the role of this technology in the region. Imaginaries capture ideas about the future use of technologies. They are deeply political in that they help define what futures are seen as possible and desirable. Studying CCS imaginaries can grant insights into how current structures and interests shape future climate mitigation pathways. Our results show that one dominant imaginary defines the scientific debate, which envisions using CCS to preserve the industrial base of the region while seeking to meet climate goals. This dominant imaginary builds its appeal and legitimacy around three main characteristics: 1) scientific authority, which justifies the need for large-scale CCS, 2) greening the industrial regime, which gives it a specific purpose, and 3) Scandinavian exceptionalism, which mobilises existing infrastructure and regional know-how combined with a narrative of national environmental leadership. 

From this week’s government/NGO section

Denial, Disinformation, and Doublespeak: Big Oil’s Evolving Efforts to Avoid Accountability or Climate Change, Democratic staff of the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability and Democratic staff of the Senate Budget Committee, United States Congress:

The joint staff investigation, focused on ExxonMobil Corporation (Exxon), Chevron Corporation (Chevron), Shell USA Inc. (Shell), BP America Inc. (BP), the American Petroleum Institute (AI), and the Chamber of Commerce (the Chamber), provides a rare glimpse into the extensive efforts undertaken by fossil fuel companies to deceive the public and investors about their knowledge of the effects of their products on climate change and to undermine efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions. Documents demonstrate for the first time that fossil fuel companies internally do not dispute that they have understood since at least the 1960s that burning fossil fuels causes climate change and then worked for decades to undermine public understanding of this fact and to deny the underlying science. Big Oil’s deception campaign evolved from explicit denial of the basic science underlying climate change to deception, disinformation, and doublespeak. The fossil fuel industry relies on trade associations to spread confusing and misleading narratives and to lobby against climate action. All six entities—Exxon, Chevron, Shell, BP, API, and the Chamber—obstructed and delayed the Committees’ investigation.

For Our Future: Indigenous Resilience Report, Reed et al., Government of Canada:

In recent years, Canada has increasingly faced severe impacts of climate change, including higher temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, extreme weather events, and rising sea levels. Climate change has already impacted First Nations, Inuit, and Métis livelihoods, culture, social relations, food security, health, well-being, and ways of life. Despite experiencing disproportionate impacts to climate change, Indigenous Peoples have been actively responding to environmental change since time immemorial and have developed Indigenous Knowledge Systems to respond to it. For Canada to reduce some of the worst impacts of the climate crisis it currently faces, Indigenous Knowledge Systems need to be considered. This is the first Indigenous-led report that draws on Indigenous knowledge, perspectives, and experiences to explore multidimensional and intersecting aspects of climate change impacts and adaptation.

139 articles in 59 journals by 1099 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

A Lagrangian perspective on the lifecycle and cloud radiative effect of deep convective clouds over Africa, Jones et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-5165-2024

Drivers and mechanisms of heatwaves in South West India, Dalal et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07242-x

The Role of Diabatic Heating in the Midlatitude Atmospheric Circulation Response to Climate Change, Ghosh et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0345.1

Observations of climate change, effects

A Global Increase in Nearshore Tropical Cyclone Intensification, Balaguru et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef004230

Extreme rainfall and landslides as a response to human-induced climate change: a case study at Baixada Santista, Brazil, 2020, de Souza et al., Natural Hazards Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11069-024-06621-1

How is climate change altering the precipitation pattern over Northwestern India?, Kumari & Mishra, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8470

Increased summertime wildfire as a major driver of the clear-sky dimming in the Siberian Arctic from 2000 to 2020, Cao et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107458

Increasing Fire Activity in African Tropical Forests Is Associated With Deforestation and Climate Change, Wimberly et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl106240

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Forster et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2024-149

Influence of large-scale circulation and local feedbacks on extreme summer heat in Argentina in 2022/23, Collazo et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01386-8

Most High Mountainous Areas Around the World Present Elevation-Dependent Aridification After the 1970s, Ma et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003936

Transformative Ecological and Human Impacts from Diminished Sea Ice in the Northern Bering Sea, Overland et al., Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0029.1

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

GNET Derived Mass Balance and Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Constraints for Greenland, Barletta et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106891

Investigating the potential for students to contribute to climate data rescue: Introducing the Climate Data Rescue Africa project (CliDaR-Africa), Noone et al., Geoscience Data Journal Open Access pdf 10.1002/gdj3.248

Towards Energy-Balance Closure with a Model of Dispersive Heat Fluxes, Wanner et al., Boundary Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10546-024-00868-8

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

A stepwise-clustered copula downscaling approach for ensemble analyses of discrete and interactive features in precipitation-extreme variations: a case study for eastern China, Yu et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07260-9

Assessing CESM2 Clouds and Their Response to Climate Change Using Cloud Regimes, Davis & Medeiros, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0337.1

Assessment of CMIP6 GCMs’ Simulation of Southwest Monsoon Rainfall over Indian Monsoon Core Region, Kesavavarthini et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-04974-y

Climate Models Indicate Compensating Effects between Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols on the 2022 Central Andes Spring Drought, Kam et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-23-0241.1

Evaluation and projection of circulation conditions tied to summertime compound drought and heatwave frequency over the Yangtze River Delta, China, for the carbon neutrality period based on CMIP6 GCMs, Wang et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8478

Evaluation and projection of the summer precipitation recycling over the Tibetan plateau based on CMIP6 GCMs, Xu et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8474

Extreme precipitation and temperature indices under future climate change in central Asia based on CORDEX-CORE, Rai et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-024-04976-w

Future Projection of Tropical Cyclone Genesis in the Western North Pacific Using High-resolution GCMs and Genesis Potential Indices, Hsiao et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100683

High-resolution modelling identifies the Bering Strait’s role in amplified Arctic warming, Xu et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02008-z

Mid-Century Climate Change Impacts on Tornado-Producing Tropical Cyclones, Forbis et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100684

Spatiotemporal variation and scenario projections of heat wave during 1961–2100 in the Loess Plateau, Si et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access 10.1007/s00704-024-04990-y

Tropical atlantic climate biases and DAMIP experiments: insights from CMIP6 models, Silva et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07253-8

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Enhanced performance of CMIP6 climate models in simulating historical precipitation in the Florida Peninsula, Wang & Asefa, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8479

Leveraging regional mesh refinement to simulate future climate projections for California using the Simplified Convection-Permitting E3SM Atmosphere Model Version 0, Zhang et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-3687-2024

Matilda v1.0: An R package for probabilistic climate projections using a reduced complexity climate model, Brown et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000295

Open-source stand-alone version of atmospheric model Aeolus 2.0 software, Rostami et al., Geoscience Data Journal Open Access pdf 10.1002/gdj3.249

Regional climate change: consensus, discrepancies, and ways forward, Shaw et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1391634

Understanding the alleviation of “Double-ITCZ” bias in CMIP6 models from the perspective of atmospheric energy balance, Ren & Zhou, Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-024-07238-7

Understanding the Cascade: Removing GCM Biases Improves Dynamically Downscaled Climate Projections, Rahimi et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106264

Cryosphere & climate change

An Intercomparison of Snow Mass Budget over Arctic Sea Ice Simulated by CMIP6 Models, Chen et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0539.1

Transformative Ecological and Human Impacts from Diminished Sea Ice in the Northern Bering Sea, Overland et al., Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0029.1

Sea level & climate change

20th-Century Antarctic Sea Level Mitigation Driven by Uncertain East Antarctic Accumulation History, Eswaran et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106991

Determining sea-level rise in the Caribbean: A shift from temperature to mass control, Maitland et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-60201-8

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Early Twentieth Century Southern Hemisphere Cooling, Brönnimann et al., Open Access 10.5194/cp-2023-90

High-frequency climate forcing causes prolonged cold periods in the Holocene, van Dijk et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01380-0

Highly stratified mid-Pliocene Southern Ocean in PlioMIP2, Weiffenbach et al., Climate of the Past Open Access 10.5194/cp-20-1067-2024

Near-synchronous Northern Hemisphere and Patagonian Ice Sheet variation over the last glacial cycle, Sproson et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-024-01436-y

Reconstruction of Patagonia’s glacial history informs key global climate drivers, , Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-024-01437-x

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Coastal ecological disasters triggered by an extreme rainfall event thousands of kilometers inland, Li et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01418-3

Dispersal and connectivity in increasingly extreme climatic conditions, Hofmann et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17299

Effects of reduced snowpack due to climate warming on abiotic and biotic soil properties in alpine and boreal forest systems, Kosolapova & Altshuler, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000417

Experimental heatwaves reduce the effectiveness of ejaculates at occupying female reproductive tracts in a model insect, Sales et al., Royal Society Open Science Open Access 10.1098/rsos.231949

Exploring the human dimensions of harmful algal blooms through a well-being framework to increase resilience in a changing world, Moore et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000411

Functional reorganization of North American wintering avifauna, Quimbayo et al., Ecology Letters Open Access pdf 10.1111/ele.14430

Impacts of bleaching on host sea anemones and associated anemonefish in Southeast Asian coral reefs, Taira et al., Regional Environmental Change 10.1007/s10113-024-02237-0

Impacts of Climate Change on the Ascension Island Marine Protected Area and Its Ecosystem Services, de Mora et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jg007395

Interactive effects of drought and deforestation on multitrophic communities and aquatic ecosystem functions in the Neotropics—a test using tank bromeliads, Séguigne et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.17346

Meta-analysis reveals that the effects of precipitation change on soil and litter fauna in forests depend on body size, Martin et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17305

Modelling 21st century refugia and impact of climate change on Amazonia’s largest primates, Cavalcante et al., Ecography Open Access pdf 10.1111/ecog.06988

Morphological and physiological features in small ruminants: an adaptation strategy for survival under changing climatic conditions, Danmaigoro et al., International Journal of Biometeorology 10.1007/s00484-024-02694-6

Net primary production annual maxima in the North Atlantic projected to shift in the 21st century, Hieronymus et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-21-2189-2024

Projecting the future redistribution of Pinus koraiensis (Pinaceae: Pinoideae: Pinus) in China using machine learning, Chen et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1326319

Should I stay or should I go? Coral bleaching from the symbionts’ perspective, Kennie & Middlehurst Taylor Frisse Murray Rohde Littler Vermeulen Plaisir Aparicio Huby Liu de Girolamo Takahashi Nardi , Leadership Transitions in Universities Open Access 10.4324/9780429331114-15

Widespread breakdown in masting in European beech due to rising summer temperatures, Foest et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17307

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

An open-access web application to visualise countries’ and regions’ carbon footprints using Sankey diagrams, Andrieu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01378-8

Contribution of Smoke Aerosols From Wildfires in Indo-China Peninsula to the Western Pacific Ocean Carbon Sink, Liu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd040398

Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration and vegetation structural changes contributed to gross primary productivity increase more than climate and forest cover changes in subtropical forests of China, Chen et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-2253-2024

Global anthropogenic emissions (CAMS-GLOB-ANT) for the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service simulations of air quality forecasts and reanalyses, Soulie et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-16-2261-2024

Projected poleward migration of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink region under high emissions, Mongwe et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01382-y

Reading tea leaves worldwide: Decoupled drivers of initial litter decomposition mass-loss rate and stabilization, Sarneel et al., Ecology Letters 10.1111/ele.14415

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

The Total Carbon Column Observing Network’s GGG2020 Data Version, Laughner et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-16-2197-2024

Underway pCO2 Surveys Unravel CO2 Invasion of Lake Superior From Seasonal Variability, Sandborn & Minor Minor, Open Access pdf 10.22541/essoar.169903679.97873115/v1

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

A Comprehensive Assessment of Carbon Dioxide Removal Options for Germany, Borchers et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003986

Burying problems? Imaginaries of carbon capture and storage in Scandinavia, Lefstad et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103564

Current national proposals are off track to meet carbon dioxide removal needs, Lamb et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-024-01993-5

Restoring reforested drylands for a wetter future – harnessing trees for credits, climate and water, Kramer & Sheil, Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1371117

The carbon dioxide removal gap, Lamb et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-01984-6

Decarbonization

Biofuels: present and future, Asase et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access 10.1007/s10668-024-04992-w

Evaluating microgrid business models for rural electrification: A novel framework and three cases in Southeast Asia, Brown et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101443

Three strategies to revive teetering clean hydrogen dreams, Ku et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103576

Geoengineering climate

Dependency of the impacts of geoengineering on the stratospheric sulfur injection strategy – Part 2: How changes in the hydrological cycle depend on the injection rate and model used, Laakso et al., Earth System Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/esd-15-405-2024

Aerosols

Impacts of spatial heterogeneity of anthropogenic aerosol emissions in a regionally refined global aerosol–climate model, Hassan et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-3507-2024

Climate change communications & cognition

A medical language for climate discourse, Forgács, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1384753

A ‘greenhouse affect’? Exploring young Australians’ emotional responses to climate change, Russell, Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-024-03737-y

Can you picture it? Effects of positive and negative depictions of climate futures on climate action intentions, Troy et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102312

Carbon collusion: Cooperation, competition, and climate obstruction in the global oil and gas extraction network, Ahamed et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114103

Do climate concerns and worries predict energy preferences? A meta-analysis, Lorteau et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114149

Price and party: The importance of partisanship and cost in American climate public opinion, Scheuch, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000306

Scientists’ identities shape engagement with environmental activism, Finnerty et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01412-9

When concern is not enough: Overcoming the climate awareness-action gap, Hochachka, Ambio 10.1007/s13280-024-01999-5

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

A rapid approach to assessing the vulnerability of Mozambican fisheries’ species to climate change, Fennessy et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000372

Climate change adaptation strategies among smallholder farmers in Senegal’s semi-arid zone: role of socio-economic factors and institutional supports, Zagre et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1332196

Climate Change Will Aggravate South Asian Cropland Exposure to Drought by the Middle of 21st Century, Mondal et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003872

Crop rotational diversity can mitigate climate-induced grain yield losses, Costa et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17298

Emissions estimation of offshore fishing vessel: Evidence from real-time voyage data, Mohiuddin et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04967-x

Future Climate Change Impacts on Rice in Uttar Pradesh, India’s Most Populous Agrarian State, Singh et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef004009

Global synthesis on the response of soil microbial necromass carbon to climate-smart agriculture, Li et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17302

Long-term straw return to a wheat-maize system results in topsoil organic C saturation and increased yields while no stimulating or reducing yield-scaled N2O and NO emissions, Yao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109937

Methane emissions in cattle production: biology, measurement and mitigation strategies in smallholder farmer systems, Sikiru et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04939-1

Recent trends in agriculturally relevant climate in Central America, Nakamura et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8476

Systemic barriers preventing farmer engagement in the agricultural climate transition: a qualitative study, Whitton & Carmichael, Sustainability Science Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-024-01504-7

The potential role of a carbon tax on CO2 emission reduction in the agriculture sector of Iran, Shabani et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 10.1007/s13762-024-05485-z

Tree contributions to climate change adaptation through reduced cattle heat stress and benefits to milk and beef production, Richards et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17306

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Can limiting global temperature rise to below 2°C warming prevent the emergence of unprecedented drought?, Ji et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110047

Changes in Mesoscale Convective System Precipitation Structures in Response to a Warming Climate, Cui et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd039920

Climate change induced Melamchi extreme flood and environment implication in central Himalaya of Nepal, Baniya et al., Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-024-06645-7

Climate change quadruples flood-causing extreme monsoon rainfall events in Bangladesh and northeast India, Fahad et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Open Access 10.1002/qj.4645

Coupling and coordination of rainfall erosivity and aerosols in the Pearl River Basin under multiple shared socio-economic pathways, Cao et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access 10.1007/s00704-024-05001-w

Estimating Combined Effects of Climate Change and Land Cover Change on Water Regulation Services of Urban Wetlands in Valdivia, Chile, Sauer et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef003801

Hidden delta degradation due to fluvial sediment decline and intensified marine storms, Zhu et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adk1698

Limited progress in global reduction of vulnerability to flood impacts over the past two decades, Sauer et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01401-y

Most High Mountainous Areas Around the World Present Elevation-Dependent Aridification After the 1970s, Ma et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003936

Spatial and Temporal Patterns in Observed Extreme Precipitation Change Over Northern Part of the Korean Peninsula, Om et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd039305

Spatial Sensitivity of River Flooding to Changes in Climate and Land Cover Through Explainable AI, Slater et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef004035

Climate change economics

Empirical testing of the environmental Kuznets curve: evidence from 182 countries of the world, Azam et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04890-1

How does climate change risk affect energy poverty? International evidence, Chen et al., Risk Analysis 10.1111/risa.14316

The role of agricultural innovations, renewable energy and economic growth in the CO2 emissions of Nepal: an empirical evidence from the environmental Kuznets curve, Regmi et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04978-8

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Active afforestation of drained peatlands is not a viable option under the EU Nature Restoration Law, Jurasinski et al., Ambio Open Access 10.1007/s13280-024-02016-5

An open-access web application to visualise countries’ and regions’ carbon footprints using Sankey diagrams, Andrieu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01378-8

Assessing the effectiveness of marine nature-based solutions with climate risk assessments, Bueno?Pardo et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17296

Can solar energy become polarized? Understanding the role of expressive and negative partisanship in support for solar tax credits, Mayer & Smith, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103545

Carbon Dioxide as a Risky Asset, Bauer et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-024-03724-3

Compensating affected parties necessary for rapid coal phase-out but expensive if extended to major emitters, Nacke et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-47667-w

Effects of emissions caps on the costs and feasibility of low-carbon hydrogen in the European ammonia industry, Mingolla et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-48145-z

Environmental regulation effects from the perspective on the industrial chain: evidence from energy enterprises in China, Zhang et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1396288

Future-proof rates for controlled electric vehicle charging: Comparing multi-year impacts of different emission factor signals, Powell et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114131

Integrated survey methodologies provide process-driven framework for marine renewable energy environmental impact assessment, Chapman et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106532

Is pivoting offshore the right policy for achieving decarbonisation in the state of Victoria, Australia’s electricity sector?, Nolan, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114136

Locally charged: Energy justice outcomes of a low-income community solar project in Michigan, Hoesch et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103569

Mapping critical minerals projects and their intersection with Indigenous peoples’ land rights in Australia, Burton et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103556

Public perceptions of fossil and alternative energy in Serbia: Between NIMBYism and nationalism, Galjak & Budi?, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114137

Searching for a recipe for success: environmental citizen petitions under free trade agreements, Laurens, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2024.2347162

The differential impact of climate interventions along the political divide in 60 countries, Berkebile-Weinberg et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-48112-8

Understanding the drivers of electricity access and willingness to pay for reliable electricity in African refugee settlements: Evidence from Zambia, Malawi, and Uganda, Casati et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103546

Unlocking the potential of rooftop solar panels: An incentive rate structure design, Wu et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114159

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

ANN and regression based quantification framework for climate change impact assessment on a weak transmission grid of a developing country across Horizon 2050 plus, Malik et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04977-9

Exploring the human dimensions of harmful algal blooms through a well-being framework to increase resilience in a changing world, Moore et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000411

Land abandonment after land grabbing: exploring the implications for local climate change adaptation and ecological restoration in Ghana, Ahmed, Regional Environmental Change 10.1007/s10113-024-02232-5

Mind the gap: The fissure between aspirations and actions in climate change governance at a local government level: A study of the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, Gadu et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1002/cli2.72

Wildfire risk management in the era of climate change, Synolakis & Karagiannis, PNAS Nexus Open Access pdf 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae151

Climate change impacts on human health

Effects of climate vulnerability on household sanitation access, functionality, and practices in rural Cambodia, Abdel Sattar et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access 10.1007/s10668-024-04881-2

Mapping geographic and demographic shifts for container breeding mosquito-borne disease transmission suitability in Central and South America in a warming world, Ryan et al., Open Access pdf 10.1101/2023.10.03.23296495

Climate change & geopolitics

China at COP27: CBDR, national sovereignty, and climate justice, Yeh & Loizeaux, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2024.2349652

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

A paradigm shift? African countries call for the non-use of solar geoengineering at UN Environment Assembly, Biermann & Gupta, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000413

Editorial: Crucial air quality, atmospheric environment, and climate change in low- and middle-income countries, Sooktawee et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1412771

How does science and technology studies contribute to climate mitigation research? Advanced review of infrastructure as a concept and method, Silvast et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.888

It’s time to broaden what we consider a ‘blue carbon ecosystem’, James et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17261

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Denial, Disinformation, and Doublespeak: Big Oil’s Evolving Efforts to Avoid Accountability or Climate Change, Democratic staff of the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability and Democratic staff of the Senate Budget Committee, US. Congress

The joint staff investigation, focused on ExxonMobil Corporation (Exxon), Chevron Corporation (Chevron), Shell USA Inc. (Shell), BP America Inc. (BP), the American Petroleum Institute (AI), and the Chamber of Commerce (the Chamber), provides a rare glimpse into the extensive efforts undertaken by fossil fuel companies to deceive the public and investors about their knowledge of the effects of their products on climate change and to undermine efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions. Documents demonstrate for the first time that fossil fuel companies internally do not dispute that they have understood since at least the 1960s that burning fossil fuels causes climate change and then worked for decades to undermine public understanding of this fact and to deny the underlying science. Big Oil’s deception campaign evolved from explicit denial of the basic science underlying climate change to deception, disinformation, and doublespeak. The fossil fuel industry relies on trade associations to spread confusing and misleading narratives and to lobby against climate action. All six entities—Exxon, Chevron, Shell, BP, API, and the Chamber—obstructed and delayed the Committees’ investigation.

Can the World Bank Deliver on Climate Change? Testing the Evolution Roadmap through Loss and Damage, Michael Franczak, International Peace Institute

The establishment of a new Loss and Damage Fund and Funding Arrangements at COP27 and the Fund’s operationalization and initial capitalization at COP28 were milestones in the UN climate regime. The World Bank engaged in the Transitional Committee process as a potential host and trustee for the Fund, a member of a new “High-Level Dialogue,” and a direct provider of loss and damage (L&D) support. The implementation of the Fund and Funding Arrangements is the first big test of the World Bank’s commitment to evolving its policies, practices, and relationships.

Natural Gas and the Energy Transition: Security, Equity, and Achieving Net Zero, Phillip Cornell, The Atlantic Council

Put simply, even as policymakers move to aggressively deploy renewable and zero-carbon energy resources, natural gas remains a valuable tool in limited volumes to manage the context dependencies of a transitioning energy system in the short, medium, and long terms.

Climate Resilience and Democratic Governance In Central America’s Northern Triangle, Salazar Vides et al., Wilson Center

The authors explore the effects of extreme weather events in the three Central American countries of the Northern Triangle—El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras—and the efforts of local communities, despite all odds, to build resilience in the face of the increasingly brutal effects of climate change.

Climate.Changes.Security. Navigating Climate Change and Security Challenges in the OSCE Region, Hans Lampalzer and Gerald Hainzl (eds), Landesverteidigungsakademie (LVAk) / Institut für Friedenssicherung und Konfliktmanagement

The security sector itself contributes to climate change. Moreover, its impact is less understood than that of other sectors. Secondly, security as a global and human good is severely impacted by climate change. Thirdly, global challenges – or even threats – demand global responses. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), the world’s largest regional security organization, acknowledged the urgency of the matter in its landmark decision at the Stockholm Ministerial Council in December 2021. Thirteen articles provide insights into various research findings of experts from different OSCE participating States.

Decarbonizing Aviation: Enabling Technologies for a Net-Zero Future, Walker III et al., Clean Air Task Force

The authors use information from a literature study and from interviews with industry participants to develop scenarios for achieving net-zero aviation emissions by 2050 using a mix of four aviation fuels: bio-Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), synthetic kerosene, hydrogen, and ammonia. To ground the analysis, the authors compared their results to supply projections for each fuel from the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) net-zero-emissions-by-2050 (NZE) scenario. None of the fuel quantities required in the scenarios was allowed to exceed the IEA NZE supply projections, with the exception of ammonia, where the IEA projection reflects only existing uses and marine fuel usage. For hydrogen, the authors used the IEA NZE projection of hydrogen supply for transportation uses only, which makes up approximately half of the IEA’s projection for total hydrogen supply. The synthetic fuel supply was governed by the IEA projection for available CO2 from DAC only.

Climate Resilience Roadmap, Climate Planning Division, Metropolitan Transportation Authority

The authors take a deep dive into understanding New York City’s public transportation’s remaining vulnerabilities — not just to one climate hazard but to all of them. It also offers a detailed plan on how the city must respond, outlining actions to protect its’ subways, maintenance yards, bus depots and commuter rail lines from floods, shield bridges from the impact of high winds, and mitigate the dangers of extreme heat on infrastructure. These projects will cost approximately $6 billion over the next 10 years. Most significantly, it reconceives climate resilience as integral to everything that the MTA does. The authors chart a path toward integrating climate resilience into the foundation of the MTA’s work moving forward, enabling it to upgrade and improve its’ system, while preparing for the weather conditions that are coming.

National: Climate Change Concerns Dip, Monmouth University

Most Americans continue to acknowledge the existence of climate change, according to the latest Monmouth University poll a very serious problem has fallen below half. Support for government action to reduce activities that impact the climate has dipped below 6 in 10 for the first time since Monmouth began polling this topic nearly a decade ago. The poll finds that the drop in the importance and urgency of climate change has been most pronounced among younger adults.

CH4harting the CO2urse. Reducing GHG Emissions from the U.S. Natural Gas Supply Chain, Garvin Heath, National Petroleum Council

Natural gas is the largest primary energy produced in the United States and its use is growing. Yet getting this gas to homes and businesses creates greenhouse gas emissions. That is why reducing emissions from America’s natural gas is an urgent priority that requires collaborative solutions. The National Petroleum Council brought together a diverse group of stakeholders with the expertise to analyze this complex issue and identify ways to reduce natural gas GHG emissions for all future supply and demand scenarios. The result: actionable consensus on ensuring a lower-emission natural gas system. The study’s research charts a course forward to meaningfully reduce emissions from the natural gas system, contributing significantly to the United States’ ability to achieve its climate goals. The report concludes that through the implementation of existing policies, voluntary commitments, technologies, and market mechanisms, a 63% reduction in methane emissions can be achieved by 2030. The report went further to identify an additional pathway that methane emissions decrease by 70% and carbon dioxide emissions reduce by 33% through 2050.

For Our Future: Indigenous Resilience Report, Reed et al., Government of Canada

In recent years, Canada has increasingly faced severe impacts of climate change, including higher temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, extreme weather events, and rising sea levels. Climate change has already impacted First Nations, Inuit, and Métis livelihoods, culture, social relations, food security, health, well-being, and ways of life. Despite experiencing disproportionate impacts to climate change, Indigenous Peoples have been actively responding to environmental change since time immemorial and have developed Indigenous Knowledge Systems to respond to it. For Canada to reduce some of the worst impacts of the climate crisis it currently faces, Indigenous Knowledge Systems need to be considered. This is the first Indigenous-led report that draws on Indigenous knowledge, perspectives, and experiences to explore multidimensional and intersecting aspects of climate change impacts and adaptation.

Liquefying the Gulf Coast, Saha et al., The Robert D Bullard Center for Environmental and Climate Justice at Texas Southern University

The authors find that the rapid expansion of liquefied natural gas exports from the United States perpetuates sacrifice zones in communities of color and low-income communities on the Gulf Coast.

Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it’s frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as “On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light”  but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article’s relevance and importance. 

Here’s an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.

Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate

The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you’re interested in an article title and it is not listed here as “open access,” be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically. 
Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to “preprint” versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we’ll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as “preprint.”

The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

Suggestions

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Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.